CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-05-19T00:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-05-19T00:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38970/-1
CME Note: Large, bright CME first seen in the NW by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-19T00:00Z as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a large filament eruption centered at approximately N50E10 with a gradual liftoff beginning at approximately 2025-05-18T19:00Z. This filament can be seen exhibiting some Northwestern deflection in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, along with dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211, field line opening visible in SDO AIA 171 and post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131 and 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-23T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Coronal mass ejections: A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), SIDC CME 500, was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from 00:24 UTC on May 19, lifting off the northwest quadrant. The CME is most likely associated with a long filament eruption observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 21:48 UTC on May 18 near the central meridian, in mid-latitude northern hemisphere. A possible glancing blow may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC evening of May 22.Lead Time: 82.95 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-19T13:03Z
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